Bleed the Bookie: Thanksgiving Special

11/27/2019

Mike McKittrick (@McKittrickM)

     With Thanksgiving right around the corner, that means a few things. Spending time with family, the Macy's Thanksgiving Day Parade, eating some great food, and football running all day long. Even though there are only three games on Thursday, I'm going to give everybody a pre-Thanksgiving treat and look at each game for an extra shot to Bleed the Bookie.

Last Weekend's Recap:

Seattle ML (-102) for two units (win)

Tennessee -3.5 (-110) for one unit (win)

Giants +6 (-110) for one unit (win)

Allen Robinson o4.5 receptions (-140) for one unit (win)


Weekend total: 4-0, +4.7 units

Season total: 8-3, +7.7 units


     To first recap last week, another perfect weekend means another big profit. I personally bought points on Seattle up to -3.5 for+150 in addition to this bet, making it an even greater profit. But, we're only going through bets I propose to the public. Allen Robinson still has it. Especially against a ragtag secondary like the Giants. With a 6-131-1 statline, he was a huge reason why the Bears won this game, 19-14. However, they couldn't cover the 6 point spread, meaning our bet on the Giants covered. Giants defense played well when they had to, but not well enough to come away with a W. That's essentially the story of the Giants season. Even though they didn't win, knowing that we, the gamblers, won might soften the blow.

     The Seahawks and Eagles had to grind out a game in Philadelphia, but it wasn't a promising game if you're a Seahawks fan. A flea-flicker and a 58 yard run were the only bright spots in a game marred by sloppy play. This was Wilson's lowest yardage total since week 1 vs Cincinnati, and his first game all year with multiple turnovers. Did Seattle peak too early? Maybe. Nevertheless, they did enough to get a win against an Eagles team that doesn't know how to beat good teams.

     The Titans showed up to play in their second half. Derrick Henry stepped up big time for them, going for over 150 yards and 2 touchdowns. When they get rolling like this, they can be scary. We've seen they can score in bunches (28 points on 6 plays in the 3rd quarter) but what about that defense? Can it get over substantial injuries in the secondary? Who knows. But if they make the playoffs, they could cause some trouble, maybe even mess around and win a division title if they can sweep the season set against Houston.


Now let's look into this Thursday's games:

     Looks like we're going back to Chicago Bears football, as they take on the Detroit Lions. I really don't know what to make of this game. The Bears could have easily lost to the Giants, while the Lions DID lose to the Redskins. This is going to be an ugly game, as most 12pm games are on Thanksgiving. Chicago opened as a -2.5 favorite at -125, but is currently -3.5 at -115. This is Jeff Driskel's first time starting on a short week in his NFL career, so we don't know how prepared he will be. The Bears' defense looks good anytime they take the field, and Khalil Mack broke out of his slump against the Giants. The Lions, with a backfield that has no established runner and a decent amount of injuries on the offensive side of the ball, I just can't see them putting up many points. My advice here is Bears -3.5.

     Dallas returns to Jerryworld after suffering a 13-9 loss in New England. They are still winless against teams with records above .500, and their task doesn't get any easier with Buffalo coming to town. The Bills come into the short week after a 20-3 victory at home. I'll be honest here, the lines on this game feels like a trap line. Dallas is a -6.5 favorite, and I could see it going either way. Dallas is historically good at their annual Turkey Bowl game, but they have yet to beat a team with a winning record. In addition, the Bills defense is legit and can very well carry them back to the playoffs. Moreover, let's not discount the fact that Jason Garrett is coaching for his life here. A loss on Thanksgiving could essentially seal his fate in Dallas. I'm thinking Amari Cooper has a big game, and o68.5 yards does have some intrigue. But this Bills team held the Patriots to 16 points when they were having a historic start to the season. So for this game, we'll go with a prop bet we haven't played yet. 10-band, Dallas wins by a margin between 1-10 points (inclusive) for +180

     Finally, the nightcap has Drew Brees and the Saints looking for revenge against the Atlanta Falcons. The line opens up at -6.5 in favor of the Saints, and I don't think ML bets are necessary on this one. Has anybody seen Drew Brees' pregame speech to his alma mater Purdue's football game against Nebraska? He had me ready to run through a wall for him. Don't think for a second he forgot about getting embarrassed by the Falcons the last time they played, nor will his teammates have forgotten. Every game from here on out is crucial for them if they want to get a first-round bye. I think the Saints cover, but I also think we can get better value than -115. This is where I start looking at the alternate spread/totals parlays. Spread/total points parlay 6: Saints -4.5 AND over 42.5 total points scored in the game at +125. Lower spread and total over will drop odds, but due to there being a second leg of the bet, you'll get better odds than just the spread. That's definitely a play to end your holiday.


Thanksgiving Football Picks:


Bears -3.5 (-110) for one unit

10-band Dallas wins by margin of 1-10 points (+180) for one unit

Saints -4.5 and o42.5 parlay (+125) for one unit


(NOTW: All prices are via Fanduel Sportsbook at the time of 3:30 pm EST. Prices and lines are subject to change at the discretion of the sportsbook)