Bleed the Bookie Week 10
Mike McKittrick (@McKittrickM)
Bleeding Blue does a lot of great content pieces: Game analysis, covering camp, player profiles, and a lot of live interaction pre and postgame with the followers of the podcast. Hell, the Bleeding Blue boys even have a fantasy football league (which I intend on winning) where we all interact with each other and have some fun. But this piece is going to be different than what you normally see on the site. This is a new blog called Bleed the Bookie, where I go through our New York Football Giants matchups every week for the rest of the season, give a small recap of both teams' most recent performance, speak on what I see within the gambling community, and give my picks on each week's Giants matchups. Some weeks I'll have player props as well if I like the odds, others I won't. Occasionally I'll look around the league to see what else is out there, but as a Giants podcast, I primarily want to focus on the Giants games as much as possible. So with that being said, let's bleed the bookie!
Looking at the week 10 matchup, New York manages to take on a team just a little more lowly than they are at the moment in their crosstown rivals, the New York Jets. The Giants are coming off of a 37-18 MNF loss to the Dallas Cowboys in a game where they played respectable football for 45 minutes. For as good as they looked in the first half, and I use the term "good" loosely, they absolutely got torched for most of the second half, giving up 21 points in the fourth quarter including a garbage time defensive touchdown. The Jets, somehow, managed to look even worse than expected, as they were beaten handily by the previously winless Miami Dolphins. Miami went from Fitztragic to Fitzmagic as the jets allowed 288 through the air and three touchdowns, with all three scores coming in the second quarter. With all of that said, the same story can be said for both teams: one bad quarter of football made the other three meaningless. The Jets outscored Miami 13-5 in the other three quarters, while the giants were only down one point heading into the fourth. Unfortunately, games aren't 45 minutes long.
From what I saw in the game on Monday night, I'm going to give out a couple of awards here for the Giants, as they did have some bright spots along with some lowlights:
Honorable mention: the black cat. Yes, some would argue that it turned the tide in Dallas' favor, but that's arguably the most entertainment a Giants fan has seen at MetLife all season.
MVPs: Let's not discount how crucial Cody Latimer was to the Giants potential success against Dallas. Even though he only reeled in 2 of his 3 targets for 8 yards, he was an absolute force on special teams. He averaged over 30 yards per kickoff return, 181 total yards, and gave the giants an average field position of their own 31 yard line. These kicks also included a 50 and 41 yard return on his first two opportunities in the second half. He gave the Giants multiple chances to take momentum back when it was still a one possession game, which the Giants unfortunately squandered. With no true bright spot on offense, I'll give Latimer the nod here.
For my Giant Shithead of the Week: The Giants red zone offense. I mean, really? 1-for-5 red zone offense? And the offense was gifted some short fields in this game between the returns and the interception. You can't win football games settling for 4 field goals inside of 30 yards. I know this team doesn't have the best red zone offense in the league, but that was just laughable.
Now, let's look forward to this week's lines on the game. The "visiting" New York Giants opened as a -2.5 favorite at -110 and are currently sitting at -120 while the Jets are even money at +100 getting two and a half. Giants ML opened at -138, moving up to -150 currently, and the Jets have gone from a +120 to +130 underdog. Money line tickets have been pouring in on the giants at 80% of the ML tickets on them and 60% of spread tickets on them. However, betting movements show that the public is starting to take the Jets +2.5 here, while ML betting movements haven't changed.
Originally, I hated this game because, honestly, who wouldn't? Two teams playing subpar football, but also showing moments of true optimism and a potential good future to come. But after giving it some thought last night, this game actually intrigues me. The Giants get a good price here against a Jets team that is dysfunctional at best. With Bell not at 100%, the Giants can force the ball into Darnold's hand more and put the Jets in third and long. Look for Leonard Williams to have a big game here. He has something to prove to his old team, who traded him less than two weeks ago, and he's playing for a big contract. The Jets have a weak defense in the passing game, but a solid run defense, ranking 4th in the league in total yards allowed. If the Giants can establish the run game early on and win the time of possession battle, I like their chances. Giants -2.5 is a good bet here.
I'm not a big fan of the over/under in football. Personally, I've been burned one too many times by field goals off the upright to bet it constantly. The over/under currently sits at 44.5, with the over going off at -120 and the under at even money. The over is bringing in about 75% of the tickets for this matchup. Again, I can't overstate enough that I hate over/under in football more than any other sport, and matchups like this are the reason why. Jets football games tend to be mid-forties or lower, with no total exceeding 46 points (24-22 victory over Dallas). Giants games tend to go the other way, with 6 out of 9 games reaching 48 points or more, including the previous four contests. However, lack of offensive fire power on both sides and an inability to finish drives with 6 on either end leads me to believe that this is going to be a battle of field position. Couple that with key personnel injury on the offensive side of the ball for both teams, my gut tells me to fade the public and take the under.
Even though the Giants and jets don't have any player props that I'm in love with, week 10 does have some matchups with some great value in my eyes. So let's look at a couple games throughout the league and see what's out there.
When you think of an MVP candidate, they have defining regular season moments. Last week, we saw Lamar Jackson put a stamp on what could be his defining moment on Sunday Night Football against New England. This week, I think Russell Wilson has his moment against the Niners. Divisional matchup, Monday Night Football, on the road, 6 point underdog, and they need this game to keep pace in a competitive NFC West. Plus, I want to see what this San Francisco team has, potentially without star tight end George Kittle. Outside of the Panthers and the Rams, the Niners haven't played a team with a winning record, and definitely not a team of Seattle's caliber. This game is a must win game if Seattle wants to stay in the hunt for a division title and potentially home field advantage. A loss puts the Seahawks three back in the loss column with 6 games to go. They're not losing here. I like this Seattle team on the ML at +230.
Looking on Sunday's slate, Patrick Mahomes will be back in action this week for Kansas City. The line is only at -6 right now. If you can grab it before it goes up, hammer it. The Titans pass defense has been questionable at best over the last 3 games, and Malcolm Butler is done for the year. Look for a big game out of Mahomes, and the Chiefs to cover the spread
My picks: all of my picks from here on out will be measured in units, or each individual person's average bet. Most people will usually make their units either 1-2% of their weekly available balance, but feel free do bet as you feel
Giants -2.5 (-120, 1 unit), Jets/giants under 44.5 (+100 .5 units), Seattle ML (+230, 1 unit), Chiefs -6 (-110 2 units)
(Note: all lines have been taken via Fanduel Sportsbook and movements bus Vegas insider. Lines and prices are subject to change leading up to kickoff depending on sites used. Blog written as of 4:30pm Friday).