Bleed the Bookie: Week 11

11/16/2019

Mike McKittrick (@McKittrickM)

Field Goals and Fumbles: The Week that Could Have Been

Week 10 has come and gone, and so have some very interesting games. The New York Giants vs New York Jets, unsurprisingly, was not one of them. In a battle of a combined 3-14, you got exactly what you expected: teams making plenty of mistakes on both sides of the ball, leading to a 34-27 New York Jets victory. Daniel Jones had a solid day in the air, racking up 308 yards and 4 touchdowns. His two favorite targets for the majority of the season, Darius Slayton and Golden Tate, cashed in with a pair of touchdowns each. With his solid game in the air, however, he put the ball on the ground three times, although only one of the fumbles was lost. At what point do we stop calling these "rookie mistakes" and start calling a spade a spade, and acknowledge the fact that Jones has issues holding on to the football? 13 fumbles in 9* games (even though he only played one drive against Dallas in Week 1 and fumbled while scrambling for a first down). Blame offensive line play, blame rookie mistakes, but this kid has an issue holding on to the ball.

On the other sideline, the Jets looked like what we thought they were as discussed last blog. I brought up the Jets stout run defense and that the Giants would need to establish the run early to win this game, and man, did the Jets front 7 dominate the trenches. But other than that, no one individual really stood out to me for a full 60 minutes offensively. Darnold had a decent day and just had to manage the game, but nothing to really write home about. Bell had nothing all day, and the only true respectable outings were Jamison Crowder (5-81-1) and Demariyus Thomas (6-84). Defensively, what didn't Jamal Adams do? He led the Jets in every statistical category with the exception of tackles for loss, and was the clear MVP for the Jets as they improved to 2-7.

Looking at the bets I took this week, this title could not describe it any better: Field Goals and Fumbles. And as this will be discussed in this week's Bookie's MVP, Fumbles and Field goals were all the difference.

Week in review:

Giants -2.5 (loss)
Giants/Jets Under 44.5 points (loss)
Chiefs -6 (loss)
Seattle ML +230 (win)

Overall: 1-3, down 1.2 units

The People's MVP: I mean, let's be honest here. Russell Wilson is the front-runner for NFL MVP this season. I said he had to have an MVP type of performance, and leading a game-winning drive in overtime is nothing short of that. Yes, he made a bad decision on the ugly interception in overtime, but look back at the tight windows he was making throws into. Not another person in this league can do that. Saving the week from a colossal loss after a bad beat in the Chiefs-Titans game, Russell Wilson is undoubtedly the People's MVP

The Bookie's MVP: Ball security. I can't stress that enough. HOLD ON TO THE BALL! Let's look at some significant fumbles this week that caused the outcome and momentum of their respective games to be drastically changed:

Jamal Adams manhandles Daniel Jones, strips the ball and scores in a 7 point loss
DK Metcalf Fumbles on the San Francisco 1 yard line
Germain Ifedi attempts to run with the recovered fumble instead of going down, fumbles and Buckner returned it for a SF touchdown
Jadaveon Clowney scoop and score of Jimmy Garoppolo
Dustin Colquitt muffs snap on a field goal attempt to go up by 8 points, then gets called for intentional grounding

All of these events drastically changed the game and were momentum swingers in one direction or another. The worst of all was the bad beat of Colquitt fumbling and getting an intentional grounding penalty. It gave Tennessee a short field in a five point game and all of the momentum. If Harrison Butker makes the kick, which he more than likely does, KC cover the spread, and that bad beat that resulted in a 4 unit swing never happened.

Looking ahead: No Giants football this week means a wide look around the NFL.

You know who really hates losing? Tom Brady and Bill Belichick. And they've had the last two weeks to prepare for this matchup and sit on losing to Lamar Jackson led Ravens team in their first real test of the season. New England is a team averaging a margin of victory of 17 points per game in the Brady-Belichick off of a bye. Yes, Philadelphia is not a fun place to play, and Philadelphia needs this win to keep pace with Dallas, but it doesn't happen. New England -3.5 is the play here

Once again, we find ourselves with another matchup of very bad football teams. New York Jets @ Washington Redskins (-2.5). This Redskins offense is abysmal. They have scored 18 points in their last three games collectively. Granted, they have faced Buffalo, Minnesota, and San Francisco, but the Jets are no defensive pushovers especially in the run game. The Washington offense has to run through the run game. The Jets held the Giants to under 30 yards rushing. That may not happen this week, but this jets defense is a good defense. I'll take the Jets ML +118

Do I follow the Chiefs again after last week's bad beat? Do I take them on the road in LA against the Chargers? Well if history says anything, I probably shouldn't. Mahomes has shown a lot of things, but he hasn't been able to win under the bright lights, being 2-6 in primetime games thus far in his short career. That's mostly not his fault, but it's something to keep in mind. However, something tells me this is a statement game for Kansas City. They should have won last week, and I think they do this week. Call me a glutton for punishment, but let's see if the Chiefs can redeem themselves. Chiefs -4.

This isn't a matchup, but a futures bet. Futures bets can really save a bad gambling year. Fanduel has Michael Thomas at +100 to end the season with the most receiving yards. For reference, the next closest in yards to Thomas is Mike Evans, 103 yards behind. Yes, Mike Evans had back to back weeks of 180+ yards receiving. But couple his inconsistency against good defenses with the emergence of Chris Godwin as a legit threat, I don't think Evans will catch up, even if the Bucs face a fairly weak schedule. Nobody except for Evans within 175 yards of Thomas. Lock that in if you can. Who said winning money had to be fast money?

Bets for the Week

New England -4 (-110) for 2 units

Kansas City -4 (-110) for 1 unit

NY Jets ML (+118) for 1 unit

Michael Thomas leads NFL in receiving yards (+100) for 4 units

(Lines are based off of Fanduel Sportsbook as of 4:00pm EST. All lines and prices are subject to change at the discretion of the sportsbook)