Bleed the Bookie Week 13


Mike Mckittrick (@McKittrickM) 

     Before I jump into this week's article, I just want to say I hope you all had a great Thanksgiving. There's a lot to be thankful for all year round, let alone this time of year, and I'm thankful that I get to bring you guys this content on a weekly basis. We get to have some fun and (hopefully) turn a profit all at the same time. Yet, we're not just going to rest on our laurels after a profitable Thanksgiving. There's more football to be played on Sunday, and a lot more money to be won! So let's get back to business, and let's Bleed the Bookie.

Thanksgiving Recap

Bears -3.5 (-110) for one unit (win)

Cowboys 10-band 1-10 (+180) for one unit (loss)

Saints -4.5 and total o42.5 parlay (+125) for one unit (win)

Thanksgiving record: 2-1, +1.2 units

Season record: 10-4, +8.9 units

     We came back down to earth a little bit after watching Buffalo manhandle the Dallas Cowboys. I'll be honest, watching Dallas' first drive made me feel confident about how they would play yesterday. That faded very quickly. Cole Beasley looked like he had something to prove in his first return to AT&T Stadium since departing in free agency, and as previously mentioned, that Bills defense is special. Buffalo held Dallas scoreless from the from the 10:34 mark in the 1st quarter, all the way to the 4:00 mark in the 4th quarter. I figured this week would be the week Dallas finally beats a good team. Clearly, I was way off. But we still did profit thanks to two games that spiked my blood pressure throughout the second half of each, that we'll be getting into below:

     The People's MVP: Mitchell Trubisky. Say what you want about him. Last year was a fluke, he's considered a bust because of who was drafted after him, or he can't grow the deep ball. After taking that shot to the chin early in the 2nd quarter, he was a man on a mission, and he was making good plays. Granted, his decision making as a runner could be a little bit better, but he made some incredible throws in this game, especially leading the Bears on a 4th quarter drive. The throw down the sideline to Tyler Gabriel inside of 3 minutes to set up first and goal was absolutely perfect. He looked special for the first time in a long time.

      Bad beats: Whenever I bring up NFL coaching in this blog, it's often because it costs me more money than it makes me. However, Dan Quinn, made a couple of unique moves in this game which, both as a fan and a bettor, I admired to watch. First, the fact that they recovered three onside kicks in the same quarter (yes one was considered offsides, but go rewatch the replay. That was a fair recovery), is unheard of. The NFL had two all year leading up to that game. Secondly, deciding to kick a field goal coming out of the two-minute warning was a great decision. Quinn had all of his timeouts and knew that the field goal was needed regardless. So if they kick the field goal early, they save valuable time instead of going for the touchdown. They could even afford to not recover the onside kick if they were to have forced a Saints 3-and-out. The kick was good, our over hit, then we had to sweat out ANOTHER onside kick recovery, but we ultimately came out on top.

A Giant Task

     The Giants are returning to MetLife after a 19-14 loss to the Chicago Bears to face a Green Bay Packers team that just got embarrassed by the 49ers on Sunday Night Football, 37-8. The Packers are currently -6.5 favorites (-110) and -280 ML while the Giants are +6.5 (-110) and +220 ML. This is another game where the Giants will be hampered by injury on the offensive side of the ball, as both Evan Engram and Golden Tate will be sidelined. This is where we'll see the abilities of Matt Lafleur to bounce back after an ugly loss vs the abilities of Pat Shurmur going against a system he's seen often as a former offensive coordinator in the NFC North. To his credit, the Giants defense played a respectable game against the Bears, giving up only 19 points and under 70 yards on the ground. But they gave up over 270 in the air, and Aaron Rodgers is a different animal compared to Trubisky. Add in the fact the Giants will be without Jabril Peppers, this one might get ugly quick. I'd take the Packers -6.5

     Looking into this game more, it feels like Davante Adams is due for a big-time performance. The Giants seem like the perfect opportunity to do that. Adams has been seeing double-digit targets from Rodgers since his return from injury. However, the one hung that puts me off about this would be the weather. If it's snowing or raining heavily, don't expect too much traffic through the air. Play this bet accordingly! If the weather looks good, play anytime touchdown/match winner double for Davante Adams to score a touchdown and the Packers to win outright at +180

A Look Around the League

     Browns. Steelers. There's some bad blood in this game and expect this one to be animated from the start. When asked about starting Devlin Hodge over Mason Rudolph, Mike Tomlin came out and said "He hasn't killed us". That doesn't exactly scream confidence to me. The Browns, despite their awful start, still has an outside shot of making a wild card game if they run the table. I expect the Browns to have a field day here and cover. Take the Browns -1.5.

     Let's just call a spade a spade, the Bengals are awful. Yes, they almost beat Pittsburgh last week, but again, not saying too much with Hodge at QB. Meanwhile, the Jets actually look like they know what they're doing. The Jets are 3 point favorites, and it seems a bit low. If they play the way they did against Oakland, I'd even consider buying points on this. But for the sake of keeping it simple, Jets -3 might just be the play of the weekend.

My Pick Recap

Packers -6.5 (-110) for one unit

**Weather Pending** Davante Adams TD/Packers win outright (+185) for one unit

Browns -1.5 (-110) for one unit

Jets -3 (-105) for two units

(All lines and prices are determined by Fanduel Sportsbook as of 11/30/19 at 3:30pm EST. Lines and prices are subject to change at the discretion of the sportsbook)