Bleed the Bookie Week 14

12/08/2019

Mike McKittrick (@McKittrickM)

It was bound to happen. We're coming down off of a 3 blog high, where we hit for big profits. And this week we essentially break even.

Week 13 recap:


Packers -6.5 (-110) for one unit (win)

Davante adams TD/Packers win outright (+185) for one unit (win)

Jets -3 (-105) for two units (lose)

Browns -1.5(-110) for one unit (lose)


Weekly recap: 2-2, -0.2 units

Season recap: 12-6, +8.7 units


     The goddamn Jets. After looking very good against Oakland, they look awful against Cincinnati. I mean, there wasn't really a bright spot on that field. Couple injuries with underwhelming the already low expectations set for them, what else can you really say? The goddamn Jets.

     Speaking of underwhelming, the Browns also ended up letting Devlin Hodge run them out of the playoff race essentially. It doesn't really seem to matter about what's going on, the browns are a perennial dumpster fire. A win could have sparked them to have a chance for a wild card, and now they get to watch Pittsburgh fight for a playoff spot they very well could win. It's a tough time in Cleveland right now

The People's MVP: Aaron Rodgers definitely had his get right game this week. In conditions similar to what he sees at Lambeau in December/January, he played a solid game and is starting to get in playoff form.


The Bookie's MVP: This is a toss up. On one hand, I blame myself for trusting the Jets, even going as far as saying it could be the play of the weekend. But we live, we learn, and we fade the Jets. But, the bookie's MVP has to be James Washington. Yes, he only caught 4 passes. But think about how critical those plays were. He made some pretty impressive plays this week to bust a lot of people riding the Browns wave.


     Overall, we're still in good shape on the season. However, I'm a believer of you're only doing as well as your last slate, and this past week was mediocre at best. But, much like a certain New York Giants QB, I've got to come back with a vengeance and something to prove.


Insult to Injury

     The Giants are coming off of a 31-14 loss to the Green Bay Packers. But, more importantly, they lost Daniel Jones to a high ankle sprain. This is something I would hope the giants don't rush Jones back from, as the only thing they have to play for is pride and player development. Saquon got rushed back from a high ankle sprain and he just doesn't look the same. My hope would be to have Jones rest for at least two weeks, give him time to heal, and let him return in week 16 to finish the season, should he be ready. But this is the Giants. Who knows what will happen.

     Looking ahead, yes, Eli Manning will be back under center on Monday Night Football. The New York Football Giants take a trip down I-95 to Philadelphia to play a 5-7 Eagles team that (somehow) is in the hunt to win a division title. The Eagles are looking to show they aren't a fluke for the last two years, especially coming off an embarrassing loss as a double digit point favorite against Miami. Call me a homer, call me delusional, but I genuinely think the Giants have a chance in this football game. Their last three meetings at Lincoln Financial have been decided by a combined 11 points, with all three meetings going to Philly. Eli has a full artillery of weapons at his disposal and a chip on his shoulder to play with. Call me crazy, I like the Giants here to keep this close, maybe even win this game. But to be on the side of caution, let's go with the Giants +8.5

     There's a lot of talented Tight Ends in the league, but I've said this for a couple of years now. When healthy, nobody is as good as Zack Ertz. He's got size, speed, and great hands. The over/under in his total yards for the game is set at 60.5, and I'm jumping all over that one. Look for ertz to have a game against a giants defense that may be caught up contending with guys like Alshon Jeffrey. Ertz o60.5 receiving yards

    

     I said this in a blog a couple weeks ago. Tennessee could be a fun team to watch if they make the playoffs. And every game from here on out for them is a must win game. I placed a futures bet on them to be a wildcard team at +430 just because of the value I was getting. Now it's looking like it may come down to them and Pittsburgh for the 6 seed. They need this win against the Raiders as their strength of schedule to end the season is much more difficult than that of the Steelers. And I think they get it here. Tennessee -2.5 sounds good to me.

     One team I was surprised with last week was Atlanta. Yes, they caused a spike in my blood pressure. But they looked decent against the Saints. They face a Panthers team in disarray, they fired head coach Ron Rivera, and I don't necessarily think Rivera was the issue. That team is so uncertain of what they're identity is going to be moving forward that it's hard to coach a team around that. So I don't think this is the kind of landmark firing that lights a fire under a team to get them going. In addition, Austin Hooper returns from IR, Jones back after missing the last game, and Calvin Ridley is red hot in his last three games. The Falcons have too many weapons. They're 3.5 point favorites and I'll take them here for that much.


My picks for the week:

Giants +8.5 (-115) for one unit

Ertz o60.5 (-112) receiving yards for one unit

Titans -2.5 (-120) for one unit

Falcons -3.5 (-110) for two units

(All prices and lines were updated from Fanduel Sportsbook as of 12:00 am EST. Lines and prices are subject to change at the discretion of the sportsbook)