Bleed the Bookie Week 15


Mike McKittrick (@McKittrickM)

Welcome back! Hopefully, you continue with the #BetWithMike movement, as we've seen very profitable outputs over the last 4 weeks.

Pick recap:

Giants +8.5 (-115) for one unit (win)

Ertz o60.5 (-112) receiving yards for one unit (win)

Titans -2.5 (-120) for one unit (win)

Falcons -3.5 (-110) for two units (win)

Week: 4-0, +4.9 units

Season: 16-6, +13.6 units

     The Giants have been able to keep games close in-game with weak adversaries, and that's exactly what we saw on Monday Night Football. They controlled the majority of the game, but could not get the outcome they wanted as they lost in OT. But, we did cover with the Giants covering the spread AND Zack Ertz racking up over 61 yards to win that bet as well.

     The People's MVP: the Falcons defense looked very good this past week, as they held the Panthers to look like they had no rhythm all day. Falcons receivers had a good day resulting in a solid all-around game from the Falcons, covering the 3.5 point spread.

     Bookie's MVP: Denver has caused a lot of drama for bettors that took the Texans laying points. But that means a profitable week for the bookie in that game. Denver manhandled the Texans all game and left them hungry for a battle for first place against Tennessee this upcoming week.

Fight Night at MetLife

     The New York Giants return home after a 23-17 OT loss to the Eagles. The Giants offense looked respectable in the first half, but man were they brutal in the second half. Throughput the game, there were a few glaring concerns. The first one is how quickly the Giants offense can get shut down. Eli had 24 passing yards in the second half, and Darius Slayton ghosted in the second half after being the catalyst throughout the entire first half. The most glaring red flag was the time of possession battle. The Eagles won the time of possession battle, nearly doubling the amount of time they held the ball. It's tough to win football games totaling under 22 minutes in time of possession, and that's one of the most significant issues this team hasn't addressed.

     Thankfully, they are set to take on the Miami Dolphins, a team just as abysmal in categories like time of possession and consistent QB play. Last week, they lost a heartbreaker (if you can call it that) to the Jets 22-21. Personally, I've always been a fan of the position that is the first to be blamed, and the last to get credit. Soccer goalies, set up men in baseball, and kickers in football. What Jason Sanders did was nothing short of miraculous. He hit a few chip shots, yes, but seven field goals? Somebody give this guy some help!

     Looking into the betting side of this, the Giants are currently -3 (-115) and -168 ML with the Dolphins +3 (-105) and +144 ML. The Giants opened as -160 ML, so the line is shifting slightly towards them in this matchup. My gut tells me the Giants, but not sure how I feel on ML or spread. In any case, we now need to look for value. I think we can safely assume neither team is winning by more than 2 touchdowns, so now we can see who we like. Winning Margin 4-way has the Giants winning between 1-13 points at +140. That's where I see this game ending up, so that's going to be my sole pick on this game, as there are no player props currently posted.

A Look Around the League:

     There are some exciting matchups this week betting wise, and other games I wouldn't touch with a 10-foot pole (looking at you Tennessee vs. Houston). One game I have a very close eye on is Dallas vs. the LA Rams. Rams are entering AT&T stadium at -110 favorites on the ML, and I think betting the spread here is pointless when it's a 1 point spread. Dallas against good teams is not good, and the Rams could get hot at the right time and try to sneak into the playoffs. Dallas' season is riding on next week in Philly. I can see Dallas focusing more on Philly, owning the tiebreaker, and looking past this game. Rams ML -112

     We addressed the Giants matchup as well as the Cowboys matchup. Might as well try the last two teams in the worst division of NFL history. The Philadelphia Eagles go down to DC to take on the Washington Redskins. I wrote last week that Zach Ertz is the best receiving tight end in football when healthy. This is where I double down on that. And since I'm doubling down, I might as well make this a parlay, right? Zack Ertz finds a way to turn something into nothing. I like him to get a touchdown, and the Eagles win this game outright. Ertz anytime touchdown/eagles win is at +250. Hammer it.

My picks for the week:

Giants win between 1-13 points (+140) for one unit

Rams ML (-112) for one unit

Zack Ertz TD/eagles win (+250) for one unit