Bleed the Bookie Week 16

12/20/2019

Mike McKittrick (@McKittrickM)

     Last week was an absolutely wild one in the NFL. There were some big shockers not only in regards to who won, but how they won. Some of the teams we thought were top tier, might not be as great as we first thought. However, with many divisions on the line this week, let's get ready to Bleed the Bookie.

Pick Recap:

Giants to win between 1-13 points +140 (loss)

Rams ML -112 (loss)

Zack Ertz TD/Eagles Outright win +250 (win)

Week 15: 1-2, +0.5 units

Season: 17-8, +14.1 units

     Some people would consider this past weekend a losing week for me, considering my record was 1-2. However, records don't matter if we profit, and that's exactly what we did (albeit a minor profit). I had confidence that Miami would keep the game close. However, after taking a safety in the third quarter, it was like a train going downhill. Eli had the sendoff he deserves in a Giants win, 36-20.

     All signs pointed to Dallas rolling over in this game, considering their play as of late and play against teams with winning records. But they came out like a team playing for their jobs (and their coaches job as well). They absolutely throttled the Rams, going into halftime with a 28-3 lead and never looking back, cruising to a 44-21 victory.

     The Eagles came out in this game and took Washington lightly. When you fight for a division, you can't take ANYBODY lightly! They had a back and forth contest with a Washington team who finally looked like they knew what they were doing. With a Zack Ertz two yard TD catch in the second half, as well as a fumble return for a touchdown as time expired, the Eagles took the win, 37-27.

The People's MVP: If you watched the Periscope stream from Saturday, Justin Penik and I discussed the Atlanta vs San Francisco game. I said I never bet big spreads due to the unpredictability, but I liked the falcons +10.5 due to how underrated they were. Matt Ryan proved he's still a notable quarterback in this league, not only covering the spread, but winning the game with Atlanta ML +410. He made a lot of people very good money on Sunday, making him The People's MVP.

Bookie's MVP: I can't remember a week in the NFL where multiple games covered as time expired. With two touchdowns in the last 5 seconds for Atlanta to hit the over, and the scoop and score in Philly for a backdoor cover, the NFL was serving up bad bets all around.

Prodigal Son Returns

     The Giants, coming off of a win against Miami, travel to the nation's capital to take on the Washington Redskins. Jones is back at the helm after missing two games, but my question is simple: Why? High ankle sprains are very finicky and require a decent amount of time to heal properly and fully. Personally, I would've let Eli ride the season out, as reaggravating the injury is more of a risk than what Jones stands to gain. This is a very winnable game for the Giants, and with all of the weapons finally clicking for the Giants, it could be a long day in Washington, should Jones play well.

     The Redskins open as 3 point favorites (-110) but have since shifted to -1.5 (-105) and -138 ML. The Giants sit at +1.5 (-115) and +102 ML with the news of Jones returning. Am I crazy to think the Giants win back-to-back games? I feel that Miami is very comparable to the Redskins (quarterback issues, one pleasant surprise at WR, gaps in defense) and that this game is winnable for New York. I like them to win this game straight up, so I'll take Giants +102.

Look Around the League:

     This week, Houston takes a trip to the sunshine state to take on a Tampa Bay team with a chance to clinch the AFC South on the line with a win. Tampa will be without their top two weapons in Godwin and Evans, not to mention a banged up Winston, with a run game that still has no identity. They rank bottom 5 in the league in yards per game and yards per carry. Expect Bill O'Brien to bring out his best Jack Ryan impression because for this Houston team in this game, it's not worth winning if you can't win big (I appreciate anybody who gets this reference). Expect Houston to win big, covering -3 easily.

     Green Bay is one of those teams that hasn't been talked about because of shocking teams like the 49ers and Ravens. I think their loss to the 49ers invalidated them in the eyes of many people, including the oddsmakers. They enter Minnesota as a +5.5 underdog and +200 on the ML. Dalvin Cook is not playing this week. As good as Alexander Mattison is, he's not Cook. Rodgers is superior to Cousins and this defense is the best they've had since they last won the Super Bowl in 2011. I think Cousins flops in this game and the Packers roll.

My picks:

Giants ML (+102) for a unit

Texans -3 (-120) for three units

Packers +5.5 (-110) for a unit

Packers ML (+196) for a half unit

(Please note that all odds are up to date as of Friday December 20 at 12pm EST via Fanduel Sportsbook. Prices and lines are subject to change at the discretion of the Sportsbook)