Ranking NFL Roster Using NFL Positional Value Pyramids
Justin Penik (@JPenik74) & Jimmy Crowell
After predicting the results of each division using a NFL Positional Value Pyramid two weeks ago, we are now able to rank all NFL rosters using the weighted averages previously published. If you need a refresher on what we were aiming to do or how we were able to come up with these numbers, I will leave a link to both the blog and my in depth thread on Twitter, analyzing all 32 teams using the pyramid.
The first out of three lists presented below is what we will put the most stock into in terms of what we feel best ranks NFL Rosters for the 2019 season. This list includes 2018 NFL QB grades where if there is a team that has a rookie QB on it for 2019, we do not include their college grade. The Broncos for example, included Joe Flacco's 2018 grade. The Cardinals, included Josh Rosen's grade from 2018. For the Dolphins, we included Ryan Fitzpatrick's grade because they're in an interesting situation where Rosen is still the younger guy. Basically, if there is some sort of QB competition, we used the veteran QB's grade here from 2018 (because using college grades from 2018 greatly skews the data set).
The next list will be one that does NOT include each team's QB grade. In order to show just how valuable a QB can be and/or, showcasing rosters that have either a lot of talent or major holes, we wanted to rank NFL rosters without considering the QB position. Here, you will be able to see teams like the Chiefs, which according to our list with all Veteran QB's, have the 9th ranked roster in the league. When you take Pat Mahomes' PFF grade out of the equation, the Chiefs have the 26th ranked roster. That is a significant difference and exemplifies both the great value Mahomes has and shows the Chiefs may not have as deep of a roster as we may think. On the flip side, look at a team like the Bears. When QB grades are counted, they are the 16th ranked team in the league and without QB grades, they have the second ranked roster. This list can also provide reasons for optimism for teams like the Jets, as they are expecting a big jump in production from the QB position, their fans can feel confident that the rest of the roster ranks among the highest in the league.
The next and final list we will provide is one that is a bit skewed because here, with teams that have a QB competition/ have rookies starting for them in 2019, we counted those rookies 2018 PFF College grades, which are typically much higher than the average NFL starter's grade. Take the Broncos for example, with Drew Lock's college grade counted, they have the third ranked team in the league which we know, is not actually true. However, this data can still show some significant points. Especially when you consider Daniel Jones' grade of approximately 81 puts the Giants as the 14th ranked roster in the league, while Eli's grade has them as the 24th ranked roster heading into 2019.
Interested to hear your thoughts on this! We would love to continue to expand this into next offseason by redesigning the initial positional value pyramid we used to reflect more current league trends. If you enjoyed this, please share it with your friends, share it online, share it with whoever! We are a small group of content creators who love what we do! Follow me on Twitter @JPenik74, follow the podcast @Bleeding__Blue and thank you to my friend, Jimmy Crowell, for being the excel expert, the mastermind behind the numbers and weighted averages. This would not have been possible without him!